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- Article name
- AVERAGED Q-MATRIXES OF MARKOV CHAINS AND THEIR APPLICATION IN PREDICTION OF OBJECTS CONDITIONS
- Authors
- Ryzhakov V. V., , rvv@pgta.ru, The Penza State Technological Academy, Penza, Russia
Ryzhakov M. V., , mryzhakov@applmech.mipt.ru, The Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (State University), Moscow region, Dolgoprudny, Russia
- Keywords
- Markov chains / averaged Q-matrixes / prediction / a state of systems
- Year
- 2014 Issue 1 Pages 18 - 24
- Code EDN
- Code DOI
- Abstract
- Features of Q-matrixes - elements of Markov chains are stated, which are used at a synthesis of a method (methodology and a technique) predictions of systems condition with long life (application). For prediction of systems condition in intermediate points of the intervals set by the moments of monitoring of systems, the concept of average Q-matrixes is introduced and the numerical method of an estimation of their elements, and also algorithm of definition of probabilities of systems conditions in intermediate points is offered. Outcomes of analytical researches of paper are verified by numerical experiments, their data confirm effectiveness of the offered method of systems states prediction.
- Text
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